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RBA board expected to leave interest rates on hold today

The Reserve Bank is expected to leave its official interest rate on hold at 4.35% when its rate-setting board wraps up its meeting this afternoon, as the Australian economy weakens.

After three back-to-back rate rises in 2026, economists at most major banks have forecast the RBA will not deliver another increase today. Unemployment has picked up to 4.5% and household spending is weakening, likely to be weighed further in Melbourne and Sydney by house price falls.

Financial markets on Monday were betting there was no chance rates would rise today. Traders have priced in just half of a rate rise by December, implying they believe a hike by then is no certainty but more likely than not.

Taylor Nugent, senior economist at NAB, said analysts would be watching the wording of the RBA’s announcement. Nugent predicted the RBA will not rule out another hike because inflation is still uncomfortably high, at 4.2% in May.

The RBA will announce its decision at 2.30pm Sydney time and its governor, Michele Bullock, will explain the board’s thinking at 3.30pm.

Good morning

It’s Nick Visser here to pick up the blog. Let’s get to it.

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Superannuation industry underinvested in renewable energy, advocacy group says

Australia’s superannuation industry is underinvested when it comes to the nation’s renewable energy transition, an environmental advocacy group claims.

The 30 largest super funds directly contributed $771m of the $99bn invested in Australian clean energy projects since 2020, roughly 0.03% of the $2.5tn in retirement savings managed by those funds, a Market Forces report shows, as reported by Australian Associated Press.

Local and foreign commercial banks provided more than half the cash flowing to Australian renewable projects, followed by developers and operators, government agencies and public authorities.

Canadian pension funds directly invested $408m more in Australian renewable energy projects over the period than the top-30 funds, said report author and Market Forces Australian campaigns head Brett Morgan.

Just six of the top-30 super funds had direct investments in Australian renewable energy or battery storage projects: Aware Super, Cbus, HESTA, NGS Super, Prime Super and Rest.

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Victorian law set to enshrine right to WFH

The Victorian premier, Jacinta Allan, will today introduce legislation to parliament to guarantee the right to work from home two days a week, including for part-time workers and regular casuals.

As the government previously flagged, the bill will enshrine the right to work from home in the Equal Opportunity Act. If passed, it will take effect on 1 September, though there is a delayed commencement of 1 July 2027 for workplaces with fewer than 15 employees.

A new detail, however, is that regular casual and part-time workers will be covered by the new laws. The government said guidance on how pro-rata entitlements will work will be released before commencement.

The law provides a pathway for dispute resolution and enforcement – first via the Victorian Equal Opportunity and Human Rights Commission and then the Victorian Civil and Administrative Tribunal if conciliation fails.

Allan said:

Work from home works for families, it saves time and money and it gets more parents working. That’s why we’re protecting work from home in law.

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Outside parliament yesterday, Juliet Lamont, an Australian film-maker who has accused Israeli authorities of abuse, said Wong reiterated she believed the group’s allegations.

You couldn’t hear [a] pin drop in there. It was harrowing. It was acutely emotional. Every woman that was there, and I think it was maybe 10, they all believed us and came up to us at the end and thanked us for sharing our harrowing testimony, said that we were really brave and want to support us in the investigations.

Israel has denied allegations of mistreatment, claiming all prisoners and detainees were held “in accordance with the law”.

Melbourne student Gemma O’Toole said federal police had committed to taking the group’s testimonies, so “that is a process that we will be actioning as soon as possible”.

From there, they [federal police] will be going to Israel to try and get forensic evidence to try and get them to take part in the investigation, which you know they’re not hopeful will happen, and obviously we’re expecting not to happen, and that’s where that will stand … It’s been weeks that we’ve been back. You would have expected that they [the AFP] would’ve wanted this information from us. No, but here we are.

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Police to investigate Gaza flotilla activist allegations

The Australian federal police will begin conducting “inquiries” into abuse and sexual assault allegations made against Israeli authorities by Australian members of the Global Sumud flotilla after meeting Penny Wong yesterday afternoon.

The AFP confirmed it had met members in the group at Parliament House and “has begun inquiries into allegations made by a representative of the group”.

Guardian Australia understands a report of crime has not yet been formally submitted, which would trigger a formal look into the allegations they were abused, tortured and, in some cases, sexually assaulted by Israeli authorities while detained after attempting to deliver aid to the occupied Palestinian territory.

Wong, the multicultural affairs minister, Anne Aly, and senior AFP officers met the group to “listen to them directly about their experiences”, a spokesperson for Wong said.

The minister has condemned the actions of Israeli authorities and the Israeli minister Itamar Ben-Gvir, who has already sanctioned, the spokesperson said.

She raised the allegations multiple times and made clear directly to Israel that Australia expects an “independent, transparent investigation”.

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Welcome

Good morning and welcome to our live news blog. I’m Martin Farrer with the top overnight stories and then it will be Nick Visser with the main action.

The Australian federal police will investigate alleged abuse and sexual assault by Israeli security forces against Australian members of the Global Sumud flotilla, it was announced last night. More coming up.

The Victorian premier, Jacinta Allan, will today introduce legislation to parliament to guarantee the right to work from home two days a week, including for part-time workers and regular casuals.

Plus, today the Reserve Bank announces its latest decision on which direction interest rates will move: but everyone’s expecting them to stay the same.