Government bonds around the world are set for the biggest monthly losses in more than a year, as investors worry about the impact of a prolonged war in the Middle East on inflation and economic growth.

Declines in bond prices have pushed their yields (or interest rates) higher, although they eased on Monday.

The two-year US Treasury yield is set for a monthly rise of around 50 basis points, the biggest increase since October 2024. Australia’s three-year yield is also 50bps ahead in March, the most in 17 months. Japan’s two-year government bond yield has risen 12.5bps this month.

Moh Siong Sim, a strategist at the Singapore bank OCBC, told Reuters:

Now that the reality is sort of sinking in that perhaps the oil price might stay high for a bit longer, given that it’s hard to see an end to the war anytime soon, the growth impact is starting to become more of a focus.

The buzzword here is stagflation. Initial focus was on inflation. Now the ‘stag’ bit is moving into the picture, and that’s perhaps explained why short-ended bond yields have come off.

Oil prices have surged above $100 a barrel since the US and Israel began attacking Iran on 28 February. This has raised fears of higher inflation, and led to a dramatic shift in interest rate expectations. The Bank of England is now expected to raise interest rates, rather than cutting them, at least twice this year, as is the European Central Bank.

The US Federal Reserve, which has been under pressure from Donald Trump to cut rates, is forecast to leave them on hold.

Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of business, the financial markets and the world economy.

Asian stock markets have fallen while oil prices have climbed further, after Donald Trump said he wants to “take the oil” in Iran.

Brent crude, the global oil benchmark, has risen a further 2.2% to $115.01 a barrel, up $2.4.

Asian stock markets have declined, with the exception of the Shanghai and Singapore exchanges, which have edged slightly higher. Japan’s Nikkei tumbled 3% and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng lost 1.1%.

Donald Trump has said his “preference would be to take the oil” in Iran and that US forces could seize the regime’s export hub on Kharg Island, the Financial Times is reporting, as the US sends thousands of troops to the Middle East.

The US president compares the potential move to Venezuela, where the US intends to control the oil industry “indefinitely” following its ousting of president Nicolás Maduro in January.

Trump said in the interview with the FT on Sunday:

To be honest with you, my favourite thing is to take the oil in Iran, but some stupid people back in the US say: ‘why are you doing that?’ But they’re stupid people.

You can follow the latest news on the Middle East here:

Keir Starmer will convene executives from the energy industry, shipping, banking and insurance at No 10 Downing Street today to discuss emergency measures to contain the continuing crisis from Iran’s blockade of the strait of Hormuz.

The roundtable includes leaders from Shell, BP, British Gas parent Centrica and Norway’s Equinor, as well as the insurance giant Lloyd’s of London (the centre of global shipping insurance), banking groups HSBC and Goldman Sachs, and container shipping companies, Denmark’s Maersk and France’s CMA CGM.

No 10 said it is intended to be a constructive meeting about the perilous state of the strait of Hormuz, a key shipping route through which about a fifth of global oil and gas supplies pass, our deputy political editor Jessica Elgot reported. It is likely to inform short and long-term contingency planning amid threats from Iran that it intends to assert sovereignty over the strait, including potentially charging vessels for access once the chokepoint is eventually reopened.

Separately, Rachel Reeves, the UK chancellor, will warn G7 nations they must move faster on clean energy to insulate economies against global price shocks from oil and gas as she and the energy secretary Ed Miliband meet G7 finance and energy ministers today.

The Agenda

• 9.30am BST: Bank of England mortgage lending and consumer credit

• 10am BST: Eurozone economic sentiment and consumer confidence

• 1pm BST: Germany inflation for March (preliminary estimate)