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Australians can expect further falls in fuel costs but it could be a week before a dramatic drop in global oil prices translates to lower bills at the bowser.

Global oil prices dropped about 10% early on Saturday after Iran declared overnight that the strait of Hormuz – a key route for oil shipments – would be open for the duration of a ceasefire between the country and the United States and Israel.

The prime minister, Anthony Albanese, was in a meeting of 49 countries to discuss the opening of the key shipping route when news broke that Iran was opening the strait.

“Freedom of navigation is essential for global trade,” Albanese said on Saturday. “We want to see, though, this fragile arrangement confirmed … We want the strait of Hormuz to be fully reopened for all countries permanently.”

Australia remained “prepared to provide assistance”, the prime minister said, adding there would be a further conference held in London in the coming week.

On Saturday the energy minister, Chris Bowen, said Australia had 46 days’ worth of petrol in reserve – 10 more days than before the US and Israeli bombing of Iran that sparked the global fuel crisis.

Since 1 April, prices at Australian fuel pumps have fallen by about 10c per litre beyond the artificial measures to ease prices, where GST was removed and the fuel excise was halved.

Australia’s main benchmarks for petrol and diesel are the Singapore market prices, which won’t respond to the global drops until trading restarts on Monday.

NRMA spokesperson Peter Khoury said: “We won’t know the Asian market figures until Monday, but we do expect that to follow the trends that have been happening elsewhere.

“Prices [at the bowser] have been falling steadily for a couple of weeks and wholesale and retail prices have been falling.

“The national average for unleaded has fallen 50c since 1 April and diesel has fallen 37c in the last week and it’s likely to fall significantly further.

“Certainly the trend, if this continues, will mean further falls but we need a permanent end to the war and a permanent ceasefire and for the [strait of Hormuz] to open properly.”

Khoury said it could take a week for falls in global oil prices to translate to the prices fuel retailers pay at the terminal gate.

From there, he said independent fuel retailers were usually the fastest to pass on the fall in costs to consumers, with the majors following.

From 1 April, the federal government halved the fuel excise on petrol and diesel, and GST revenue on fuels recouped by states and territories has also been paused. Both arrangements were agreed for three months.

According to the competition watchdog, the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission, the fuel excise cut and GST removal equates to a saving of about 32c per litre of fuel.

In a weekly fuel price monitoring report released on Friday, the ACCC said average retail petrol prices had dropped 41.6c per litre since 31 March across Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane, Adelaide and Perth.

There were major concerns this week that a fire at one of Australia’s two large fuel refineries, the Viva facility in Geelong, could cause major disruptions to supply in Australia.

Bowen said on Saturday that Viva bosses had told him that production of diesel and jet fuel was at 80% capacity, and petrol was at 60%.

Khoury said the impacts of the blaze were unlikely to have any effect on retail prices in Australia.

“It will have no impact on price because they are determined globally. Even a refinery fire in the middle of a fuel crisis won’t affect the prices,” he said.

Bowen said that nationwide only 1.5% of fuel service stations were without diesel and even fewer were without petrol. In New South Wales, where shortages had been the most acute, he said 2% of outlets were without diesel and 0.5% were without petrol.

Australia had 46 days’ worth of petrol and 31 days’ worth of diesel in reserve. Bowen also confirmed he had extended a period of allowing higher sulphur content in fuels until the end of September.

The foreign minister, Penny Wong, and the trade minister, Don Farrell, signed a supply agreement on diesel, petrol and LNG with Singapore after concluding a visit to the country overnight.