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The Socceroos’ challenge at the World Cup in North American has crystallised after a dramatic evening of qualifiers in Europe, and it leaves Australia staring at two of world’s best young footballers in their tournament opener.

The fairytale run of Kosovo came to an end in Pristina after Turkey eked out a 1-0 victory to book their place in North America. That means Australia now know their first-up opponents, alongside the United States and Paraguay in Group D – arguably the most difficult of the 12 pools at the tournament.

Without a tournament favourite, Group D may not have the moniker of “the group of death”, but look closely and the challenge is formidable.

Thanks to the expanded format in this first 48-team World Cup, a single victory is likely to be enough to escape the pool phase. Thirty-two teams progress, including each group’s top two as well as the eight best third-placed teams.

But while other groups feature easy-beats such as Haiti, Cape Verde, or the team the Socceroos thrashed 5-1 on Tuesday, Curaçao, the Australians aren’t so lucky.

Turkey’s victory over Kosovo means the lowest-ranked side in Australia’s group is Paraguay, at No 40 in the world as of Wednesday morning (the rankings are due to be updated later this week). Paraguay conceded just 10 goals in 18 matches in South American qualifying.

Although the United States are ranked 17, they will benefit from home ground advantage. Expectations for the home side are to at least reach the round of 16, where they finished in Qatar, Brazil and South Africa, as well as back in 1994 the last time they hosted the World Cup. Their best finish was in the quarter-finals in 2002, when they lost 1-0 to Germany thanks to a Michael Ballack goal.

Turkey are likely to be even more dangerous, however, despite their ranking of 22 and long absence from the World Cup. At full-time in Pristina, the capital of Kosovo, the Turkish players and staff celebrated in a mass on the pitch to mark a significant night on the rollercoaster of Turkish football.

The passionate footballing nation with the second highest population in Europe, after Russia, has not been on football’s biggest stage since 2002. That 24-year wait was unimaginable when Turkey finished third in Japan and South Korea, falling to Brazil in the semi-finals, with stars like Hakan Sukur and Tugay Kerimoglu and a crop of promising players such as Emre Belozoglu and Yildiray Basturk.

Two decades of mediocrity saw them miss five World Cups and two European Championships, but – driven by a hungry, talented new generation – recent improvement has been rapid. They reached the quarter-finals of Euro 2024 after a memorable win over Austria in the round of 16 reported on these pages as “Turkey’s greatest night in a generation”.

That night victory was largely down to the brilliance of prodigy Arda Guler and last-minute heroics from goalkeeper Mert Gunok, who palmed a header up and away in the dying stages.

In Kosovo, the latest milestone victory was thanks to another miraculous save, this time from Galatasaray’s Ugurcan Cakir, who has assumed the No 1 jersey this season. Cakir managed to tip a looping first half shot from Fisnik Asllani onto the crossbar, before repelling a late bombardment from the home side.

The decisive goal came from Kerem Akturkoglu, who finished off a flowing move early in the second half. It was engineered by Orkun Kokcu in midfield, a talented ball player who played junior internationals for the Netherlands, and created by the wingplay of Kenan Yildiz, the German-born attacker who is already a key performer for Juventus at age 20.

Together with the gifted Guler – who scored a remarkable 70m goal for Real Madrid in March – the side boasts a searing attacking threat, even if Italian coach Vincenzo Montella chooses not to field a traditional striker. Guided by the team’s conductor, Inter Milan midfielder Hakan Calhanoglu, Turkey scored 17 goals in six qualification matches and were beaten just once, by Spain, in a group in which they finished second.

The playoff semi-final mirrored the match against Kosovo. Turkey defeated Romania 1-0, with the decisive goal coming in the same, 53rd minute. That time it was Guler who set up the winner for Brighton defender Ferdi Kadioglu with a gorgeous, penetrating lofted pass in behind.

Calhanoglu has been a regular in the Guardian’s top 100 footballers poll in recent years, and in 2025 he was joined for the first time by Guler at 71 and Yildiz at 89. It’s a sign this is a fierce football nation on the up, and their presence in North America will enhance the tournament even if they were one of the last to qualify. Finding a way to beat them in their opener in Vancouver on 13 June is now up to Tony Popovic and the Socceroos.