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Good morning. Andy Burnham is heading back to the Commons after a resounding victory in Makerfield, putting Keir Starmer’s leadership on notice – and giving Reform something to think about. The – now to be former – mayor of Manchester described it as the “most consequential byelection of our lives”, that he promised would not only change the constituency, but the country. Already, he has touted his win as a “turning point”.
The coming days will tell us more about what happens in terms of his expected challenge to Starmer’s premiership. But his stunning win against Reform is already being unpacked by politicians and pollsters.
This morning I’m bringing you the latest from the count at the Edge conference centre in Wigan – and from Scotland, where two other byelection results were declared overnight.
Five big stories
Middle East | Talks set to take place on Friday between the United States and Iran on implementing the 14-point agreement to end their war have been cancelled, Switzerland’s foreign ministry has announced.
Brexit | Michel Barnier has said Britain could regain its special terms if it rejoined the EU and claimed it was becoming clearer every day to the British people that they would be stronger in Europe.
Ukraine | Ukrainian drones have hit several locations across Moscow in Kyiv’s biggest air raid on the city since the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion, setting a major oil refinery on fire and forcing evacuations at the country’s largest airport.
UK politics | The attorney general has told his office to no longer post on X, making it the first UK government department to stop using the Elon Musk-owned platform amid increasing worries about its use to incite violence and racism.
Environment | The environmental damage bill racked up by the highest-consuming 10% of the world’s population has reached up to $5.7tn a year – larger than the economy of every country except the US and China, a study has found.
In depth: ‘Not a party atmosphere but very much “what’s next?”’
As counting got under way late last night, no party seemed overly confident, our north of England correspondent Hannah Al-Othman tells me, but turnout of 58.75% up from 52.5% at the 2024 general election, and the highest for a byelection in seven years – was an early positive indicator for Burnham.
When the results were announced just after 3am, it was clear that Burnham had secured a thumping victory, winning 24,927 votes (55%) for Labour and increasing the party’s vote share by nearly 10%. Robert Kenyon for Reform, who won 15,696 votes (35%) and with Rebecca Shepherd for Restore Britain, the new hard right party, trailing a distant third on 3,111 votes (6.84%)
There was much talk of Restore delivering his victory in the run up to polling day, says Hannah, “but actually Burnham won without them”, securing 6,100 more votes than both Reform and Restore combined – which will add huge momentum to any leadership bid.
After much analysis of the Greens eating into Labour support, Burnham looks to have united the progressive vote behind him – Hannah says there was “definitely evidence of tactical voting – Lib Dems only got 163 and Green 308.”
Polling guru John Curtice cautioned against reading a wider surge for Labour into the results, telling the BBC that much of Burnham’s success lay in “his appeal to those who wanted to see the back of Keir Starmer”.
In his victory speech, Burnham said the people of Makerfield had “voted for change, they have voted for more power for the north and everywhere forgotten by Westminster”. Labour has a “final chance for change”, he added, and “must act upon it” – his clearest nod of the night to his expected challenge of Starmer’s premiership – before telling reporters he was heading off for a pint.
Given the scale of the Labour victory, Hannah notes there wasn’t a “party atmosphere” at the count among Burnham’s campaign: “The mood was very much ‘what’s next?’”
What happens next?
It’s fair to say that Burnham now looks unstoppable. As Andrew Sparrow reported in his live blog, Louise Haigh – former transport minister and one of the key figures running Burnham’s campaign – has been saying Keir Starmer should agree to an “orderly and managed” handover of power.
After a week in which Starmer doubled down on his vow to stay put as prime minister, despite more than 100 backbenchers having called for him to go, there was speculation he should brace for a wave of cabinet resignations over the next 72 hours.
But our political editor Pippa Crerar earlier reported that Team Burnham is desperate to avoid the chaos of a Boris-style collapse, with senior campaign figures telling her Starmer should be given space to set out a timetable for his departure. Energy secretary and key Burnham ally Ed Miliband dutifully knocked down mischief-making about his own position yesterday afternoon.
This morning, Starmer loyalist and home office minister Mike Tapp told the BBC he did not think a handover like that would be realistic, because Burnham “hasn’t laid out his political agenda”.
As my lobby colleagues have set out in this helpful explainer, the timing largely depends on whether Starmer does choose to step aside in the coming days. (Starmer congratulated Burnham just after 6am, posting that voters “chose Labour’s campaign of hope and optimism over division and hate”.)
Meanwhile, Wes Streeting, another potential leadership rival, has stated he’s prepared to spark a contest early next week, speaking to a wider question: should Labour go for a coronation with Burnhamor a contest with a wider range of contenders? Some will argue that the sheer scale of Burnham’s victory this morning makes the former course more likely.
Spare a thought, too, for the people of Makerfield, who have spent the past month swamped by party activists and media, unable to nip out for a pint of milk without someone bothering them for their thoughts. Locals told the Guardian the campaign has become increasingly toxic, with reports of Labour placards being torn down, neighbours falling out and divisive rhetoric on local Facebook groups. After the political circus has trundled back to Westminster, residents are left with the slow and careful task of community repair.
Who is Andy Burnham?
Britain’s most popular politician™ has the eyelashes of Betty Boop and the wardrobe of a Haçienda dad. To some, he’s a plain-speaking visionary who will re-model the state for the people; to others, he’s a careerist shapeshifter who has already shot twice for the Labour leadership, and lost both times.
His political philosophy, Manchesterism, is about much more than networked transport (though it helps that the bright yellow Bee Network has become a recognisable symbol of the city’s revival under his leadership). It boils down to a more interventionist approach to the economy, the public takeover of essential assets and a serious expansion of devolution.
Burnham set out some big ideas during the campaign – a decade-long project to bring water and energy into public control, an overhaul of property tax and social care – but critics warn we have not heard so much from him on immediate challenges, in particular foreign policy, which is considered a weakness.
But really, who is Andy Burnham?
The campaign trail threw up several policy “re-alignments” from Burnham.
Having previously called for the contentious “no recourse to public funds” rule to be scrapped (which prevents migrants from claiming benefits or receiving housing support, even when they can’t work), Burnham has now distanced himself from that stance. He also said he would back controversial changes to the immigration system – which include an end to permanent refugee status – being pushed through by the home secretary, Shabana Mahmood.
Some worry his flip-flopping on issues like EU membership, bond markets and single sex spaces suggest he could be pulled to the right by Reform and repeat the same mistakes as Starmer- particularly as Burnham has been touted as the party’s “soft left” candidate, though many would struggle to define what that even means these days.
What does the result mean for Reform?
This was a bad night for Reform: the party needs to win left-behind, Leave-voting seats like Makerfield with ease if they are to have any hope of securing victory in a general election.
Despite polling 10 plus points ahead of Labour nationally, Makerfield marks the second byelection loss in a row for Reform UK this year, and the first facing competition from Restore Britain, the newly formed hardline party that advocates mass deportations and the reintroduction of the death penalty.
Although Reform shifted to focus on local issues, like fly-tipping, during the campaign their candidate Robert Kenyon struggled after sexist and homophobic online posts from a former X account were unearthed, while Restore candidate Rebecca Shepherd, targeted right-leaning women on Facebook.
Although Nigel Farage warned voters on the eve of the byelection that a vote for Restore was essentially a vote for Labour, previous polls suggested Restore supporters were less likely to vote tactically than the progressives who were considering voting for Burnham to fend off Reform.
Prof Rob Ford, a political scientist at the University of Manchester, said Restore had a message that worked for them: claiming Reform – with its countless Conservative defectors – had become part of the same establishment that Makerfield voters believe does not serve them.
Don’t forget Scotland, I live there
The psychodrama consuming the Labour party was a distant echo in the two other byelection contests decided overnight in Scotland, which were necessary after two SNP MPs were voted into the Holyrood parliament last month.
The safe SNP seat of Arbroath and Broughty Ferry remained so, surprising absolutely no one, while further north the Nationalists lost to the Tories in Aberdeen South after a contest dominated by energy policy.
This will be a welcome morale-boost for Kemi Badenoch, who visited the constituency repeatedly during the campaign, and suggests the conviction of former SNP chief executive Peter Murrell for embezzlement has further dented voter confidence in Scotland’s governing party.
What else we’ve been reading
I was intrigued to read this piece by Rosie Parkyn on how a social media ban may impact young people’s news literacy, and how we can prevent it. Poppy Noor, deputy editor, Newsletters
The film industry remains dominated by male directors so I thought this read about the less-championed, but just as important, female editors was refreshing and inspiring. Sinead Campbell, Scott Trust journalist
Guardian staff answered readers’ questions for the Filter, and mostly, I’m just amazed at the sub-19 minute 5k that our money correspondent Sarah Marsh talks so breezily about ! Poppy
World Cup 2026
On the pitch
Mexico v South Korea | Mexico became the first side at the 2026 World Cup to secure their place in the knockout stage – the only goal came after 50 minutes and was a gift from South Korea.
Czechia v South Africa | Teboho Mokoena’s 83rd-minute penalty secured a 1-1 draw for South Africa after Czechia had taken the lead through Michal Sadilek.
Switzerland v Bosnia and Herzegovina | Johan Manzambi scored twice in Switzerland’s 4-1 defeat of Bosnia and Herzegovina in which all of the goals came in the final quarter of the match.
Off the pitch
Border troubles | Côte d’Ivoire’s striker Elye Wahi has been denied visa-entry into Canada due to an ongoing investigation into alleged fixing.
Drone control | An “unregistered drone” that flew near the South Korea team’s training camp, was intercepted by Mexican military forces but it was not clear if the drone was trying to spy on the South Korean team.
British break-in | Reports that ticketless England supporters were able to gain entry for the opener against Croatia by evading security checks though huge gaps at the side of ticket barriers, have been played down by Fifa.
Today’s fixtures
• USA v Australia, 8pm BST on BBC
• Scotland v Morocco, 11pm BST on BBC
• Brazil v Haiti, 1:30am BST on ITV
• Turkey v Paraguay, 4am BST on BBCSport
Something for the weekend
Our critics’ roundup of the best things to watch, read, play and listen to right now
Film
Toy Story 5 | ★★☆☆☆
The fifth episode of the Toy Story franchise has the unblemished sheen of a brand new smartphone. But at heart, it has gone dead. For all the intensive, high-energy creative work that has clearly gone into this film’s every frame, the jeopardy, the novelty, the ideas and the passion are lacking; the crucial Toy Story theme of mortality feels underpowered, and the film calamitously loses its nerve with its own big idea – the sinister way addictive tech devices are undermining the imaginative play that kids once had with honest-to-goodness toys. It’s almost incredible to think that the Toy Story series is more than 30 years old, a central plank of the Pixar animation golden age. But now it is played out and IP exhaustion has set in. Peter Bradshaw
Music
Olivia Rodrigo: You Seem Pretty Sad for a Girl So in Love | ★★★★☆
With a certain crushing inevitability, the arrival of Olivia Rodrigo’s third album has been accompanied by a lot of frenzied decoding of its lyrics for references to Louis Partridge, the British actor whose relationship with the singer ended late last year. But the real identity of the subject of You Seem Pretty Sad for a Girl So in Love – a song-cycle that follows a relationship from the first blush of romance to some fabulously bitter post-break-up recriminations – might be the least interesting thing about it. It’s a spectacularly accomplished pop album whoever it is about. It’s intelligent, witty, complex, occasionally painful listening. You Seem Pretty Sad for a Girl So in Love suggests an artist maturing with an impressive ease: nothing about it feels forced or uncomfortable. Alexis Petridis
TV
I Will Find You | ★★★★★
Nelson Mandela died in December 2013 but he had long before been canonised as a secular saint. This three-part series directed by James Rogan ends in 1994, when Mandela became president of South Africa and that process of sanctification was under way. It’s gripping, it’s revelatory and it pulls no punches. It evokes the grim reality faced by Mandela and his allies during their decades-long struggle against apartheid; a sprawling story with many moving parts, both inside and outside South Africa. Mandela is mostly present as a looming absence – he is central to the narrative and yet, as a prisoner, aside from it. Free Nelson Mandela is nuanced enough to explore activism as a life’s work: a road without end. Phil Harrison
Games
UFC 6 | ★★★★☆
Becoming a professional fighter takes years of repetition, drilling techniques and training footwork until everything is instinctual. In MMA, which encompasses every martial art, it’s even harder. EA Sports’ UFC 6 realistically captures the grind of this brutal discipline. It’s an authentic fighter experience and the fighting itself is excellent. UFC games have had a bit of a rock-’em’-sock-’em quality to them, but this latest instalment does a great job at creating more natural animations, flowing beautifully between the different levels submissions, wrestling, and stand-up – of an MMA fight. Between the fluid fighting and the story-mode razzmatazz, this is the best version yet of EA’s fight-sim series. Kirk McKeand
The front pages
“Britain could rejoin EU on special terms, says ex-Brexit negotiator”, is the Guardian’s front page today.
The Times has “UK wastes billions paying too much for big projects”. The FT leads with BoE keeps rates at 3.75% after Iran peace deal lowers oil price” while the i Paper says “Cost of living hope for UK as oil flows again in the Gulf”. The Express has “Stay out of EU and cut taxes to back global Britain”.
The Mail’s splash is “Toddler critical after being ‘thrown’ into crocodile pit at zoo”, and the Telegraph runs with the same story, saying “Boy, 3, thrown to crocodiles”. The Mirror leads with its water safety campaign under the headline “Together we can save lives”. Lastly Metro runs a story about a World Cup anthem with “You’re gonna be the ones that save us”.
Today in Focus: The Latest
Trump’s Iran deal: the art of the fail?
Donald Trump is claiming his Iran peace plan is a victory for Washington, despite the 14-point agreement revealing significant concessions to Tehran. Under the deal, Iran will reopen the strait of Hormuz in exchange for sanctions relief and the release of frozen assets, while talks will continue over the fate of Iran’s nuclear programme.
On Today in Focus: The Latest, Nosheen Iqbal speaks to the Guardian diplomatic editor, Patrick Wintour – watch the full episode on YouTube here.
Cartoon of the day | Ben Jennings
The Upside
A bit of good news to remind you that the world’s not all bad
Archaeologist Phil Harding almost didn’t spot the two wooden poles standing 120 metres apart at Bulford, a few miles from Stonehenge. It was only when he later analysed the site plan that he recognised he’d made a “once in a lifetime find.”
A 5,000 year old monument is thought to be the earliest structure aligned with the summer and winter solstices, and may have served as a prototype for the later solar alignment at Stonehenge. It was discovered by a team from Wessex Archaeology, who were digging for the construction of new Ministry of Defence housing.
“It doesn’t matter whether you are a resident of Wiltshire or a resident of the Earth – everybody knows about Stonehenge. And to be able to contribute something to expanding our knowledge of Stonehenge is an incredible privilege,” said Harding.
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Bored at work?
And finally, the Guardian’s puzzles are here to keep you entertained throughout the day. Until tomorrow.
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