Farage and Yusuf are now taking questions.

Farage was asked about yesterday’s Sunday Times report saying a company owned by Richard Tice, the Reform UK deputy leader, is alleged to have failed to pay tens of thousands of pounds in tax on dividends.

In response, Farage said that Dan Neidle, the tax campaigner who has also looked into the Tice story, backing up the Sunday Times claims, has said that there was “no attempt at [tax] avoidance or evasion” because Tice paid the tax in a personal capacity. Farage said:

If anything, Mr. Tice might have slightly overpaid tax. So has the exchequer lost in any way at all? No.

Farage also said this was “an incredibly complex area of tax law”.

The Reform UK claims about the economic impact of legal migration are not in line with the views of mainstream economists and experts.

A few months ago the Migration Advisory Committee, the government’s main expert advisory body, published a report on the fiscal impact of immigration. It looked at the lifetime fiscal contribution made by a particular group of immigrants – people on skilled worker (SW) visas, and their dependents and that that, overall, their lifetime contribution to the British economy is “clearly fiscally positive”.

There is more on the report here.

And here is a quote from the MAC report.

Overall, the SW [skilled work] visa route is clearly fiscally positive for the UK. This is almost inevitable given that main applicants on the route must have a job offer paying above a set of salary thresholds. This means that these migrants have higher employment rates than UK residents since employment is a condition of the visa and as we shall demonstrate, salaries on the SW route are significantly higher than UK average wages. For the 2022-23 cohort as a whole, we estimate a present value net fiscal contribution of around £47bn over their lifetime. However, this estimate hides very substantial heterogeneity. The entire positive contribution comes from main applicants – particularly those outside of H&C [health and care workers – a subset of the SW route].

Zia Yusuf, the Reform UK chair, is speaking now. He says that, according to govenrment figures, up to 2.2 million immigrants are becoming eligible for indefinite leave to remain. He claims this could eventually cost the country £622bn – three times the annual budget for the NHS.

He gives credit to Shabana Mahmood, the home secretary, for wanting to tighten the rules. But he says that Mahmood is under pressure to back down. He says he has heard that she is preparing to resign.

He confirms that Reform UK would abolish indefinite leave to remain status, and terminate all welfare payments to foreign nationals.

And he says Reform UK would hold a national inquiry into how the “Boriswave” legal migration surge was allowed to happen.

He says:

We recognise the historic scale and severity of this financial catastrophe.

The Boriswave caused Britain enormous damage and the fact it was done against the wishes of the British people. It is without a doubt one of the biggest political scandals of our lifetimes. It culturally transformed our country and has the potential to bankrupt it.

So a Reform government will commission a national inquiry into the Boris wave, how it happened, who authorised each aspect of it and why the likes of Boris Johnson and Priti Patel will be compelled to testify under oath, along with anyone else involved.

Farage is now talking about immigration. He says supporters of high immigration always claim this is good for the economy. But they never provide evidence for this, he claims.

And he claims that, if people who arrived in the UK as part of the so-called “Boriswave” (the surge in legal immigration that took place when Boris Johnson was PM), get indefinite leave to remain (normally available after people have been in the UK for five years – although Labour plans to make the normal wait much longer) then the economic consequences will be “catastrophic”.

He says the party publishing a document explaining how ensuring “Boriswave” migrants are blocked from citizenship, and being able to claim benefits, would save every household £20,000.

Keir Starmer has confirmed that he wants to stop children being exposed to addictive scrolling features on their phones as part of measures to protect them from social media.

The PM is under pressure to implement an Australian-style ban on social media for under-16s, and the government is consulting on whether to go ahead with a full ban, or whether to just impose more specific restrictions.

In his interview on Radio 5 Live this morning, Starmer said that addictive scrolling features would have to be banned for young people. He said:

It’s not a question of if we do something, it’s what we do.

The addictive scrolling mechanisms are really problematic to my mind, they need to go.

That stuff where it’s designed to ensure that children stay on for longer, so there’s never-ending scrolling, for example.

There are algorithms, there’s features in the system that are designed to be addictive – I think that’s wrong.”

Parents and carers are really worried about this.

A typical household will be almost £500 worse off this year because of higher energy prices caused by the war in Iran, the Resolution Foundation thinktank has claimed.

In a briefing, it says that, whereas the average household had been on course to see living standards rise modestly this year, the energy price shock will put that into reverse.

It says:

Despite some lower-income households receiving a long-overdue real-terms increase in their benefits, we now estimate – based on market-forecasts for the rise in energy prices consistent with market pricing after the announcement of a ceasefire – that average income growth for the poorest fifth this year is now set to be just 1.2 per cent, down from 2.8 per cent before the conflict.

The picture is brighter for families in the bottom half of the income distribution with three or more children. Even after the inflation shock, the abolition of the two-child limit is estimated to deliver 7.7 per cent income growth for this group this year – compared to 0.0 per cent for poorer families with fewer than three children.

Further up the distribution, rising energy prices will likely tip living standards growth into negative territory: the typical household, previously on track for 0.9 per cent growth, is now set to see its income fall by 0.6 per cent – a difference of £480 – over the course of the current financial year.

James Smith, chief economist at the thinktank, said:

Despite hopes for a sustained peace, the path of this conflict remains uncertain and energy prices remain well above pre-war levels, meaning many households face a decline in their purchasing power this year.

Keir Starmer has dismissed suggestions that bad results for Labour in the elections in May could force him out of office.

Speaking to reporters in the north-west this morning, and asked if he would resign if Labour suffered heavy losses in the elections, Starmer replied:

We will go in and fight these elections.

But I was elected in July of 2024 with a five-year mandate to change this country, and I intend to carry through that mandate.

I will be judged at the next election on whether I’ve delivered, and I know that I’ll be judged on whether living standards have improved, whether our public services are better, particularly the health service, or whether people feel safe and secure as a country in a more volatile and dangerous world.

Reform UK is campaigning under the slogan “Vote Reform, Get Starmer Out”, with Nigel Farage claiming big wins for his party could force Stamer out of office within weeks. At Wesminister this is seen by many as more wishful thinking than a realistic assessment of what might happen.

Given how unpopular Brexit has turned out to be, you might think there would be limited appeal for the ‘Brexit betrayal’ counterattack as a response to the story about the government’s plans to align much more with single market rules. (See 9.39am.)

But Reform UK are happy with their old war cry. This is how Richard Tice, the party’s deputy leader, responded to the Guardian’s story.

Outrageous

Labour plots to deny MPs vote on new EU sell-out

Reform will reverse such a betrayal

Kemi Badenoch has been giving interviews this morning. Asked about the story on Sky News, she said aligning with the EU’s single market rules, while not being a member, would be “the worst of both worlds”. She went on:

It won’t help growth. Why should we be out of the EU, able to make our own choices and not take those decisions?

Remember we are a competitive, competing economy. Taking EU rules without having a vote on them is completely wrong.

If you want to be in the EU, come out and say ‘We want to go back into the EU’. That’s what they’re not brave enough to do.

So they’re picking this weird hybrid, which is the worst of both worlds. It’s not in the EU, it’s not out. It’s just doing whatever the EU is doing.

The delayed Hillsborough law could come into force after a shift by the government on forcing intelligence services to give evidence to public inquiries, Peter Walker reports.

Keir Starmer is at a school in Angela Rayner’s constituency this morning (see 9.45am) to promote this government announcement about school food. Raphael Boyd has the story here.

In his Radio 5 Live interview, Keir Starmer was also asked about this Guardian story by Alexandra Topping and Peter Walker saying “ministers are planning to fundamentally reshape Britain’s relationship with the European Union, with new legislation that could result in the UK signing up to EU single market rules without a normal parliamentary vote”.

Starmer defended the proposed legislation, saying a closer relationship with the EU was in the national interest. He said:

We’re in a world where there’s massive conflict, great uncertainty, and I strongly believe the UK’s best interests are in a stronger, closer relationship with Europe, whether that’s defence and security, of course, energy … and also our economy …

I think there’s also a sense, 10 years on from the Brexit referendum, that we’ve got to look forward now, not backwards.

Let’s not just have all the old arguments over the last decade. Let’s go forward and recognise that a stronger, closer relationship with Europe is in the UK’s best interest, particularly in a world that is as volatile as it is at the moment and I know that worries a lot of people.

In response to the suggestion that allowing the UK to align with EU regulation using secondary legislation amounted to integration by stealth, Starmer said this would only happen under a bill “voted on in parliament”.

Good morning. The parliamentary recess is over, the Iran war disaster isn’t, campaigning is ramping up because the May elections are less than four weeks to go, and there will be plenty for MPs to discuss as they meet in the Commons this afternoon. The full timetable, as usual, is down below.

Keir Starmer is in Greater Manchester this morning, on a visit linked to the English local elections. But he is expected to be in the Commons later giving an update on the UK response to the Iran war, and in an interview on Radio 5 Live a few minutes ago he confirmed that Britain will not join the US in enforcing the new blockade of the stait of Hormuz proposed by Donald Trump.

Asked if the UK would support the US with its blockade, Starmer replied:

We’re not supporting blockade.

Starmer confirmed that the UK does have “minesweeping capability”. He said he would not go into “operational matters”, but he confirmed that Britain has been talking with allies, in a reference to discussions on what could be done to keep the strait open after the conflict between Iran and the US is over.

Having the strait open was a priority, he said.

The strait is shut or not free for navigation in the way it should be. That means that oil and gas is not getting to market. That means the price is going up. That means everybody listening to this is facing higher energy bills. And I don’t want that to happen.

I want their energy bills to be stabilised and lower. And so it is, in my view, vital that we get the strait open and fully open.

I will post more from the interview shortly.

Here is the agenda for the day.

Morning: Keir Starmer is on a visit in Greater Manchester, and is doing an interview with Radio 5 Live.

Morning: Kemi Badenoch is on a campaign visit in Clapham, south London.

10.30am: Anas Sarwar launches Scottish Labour’s manifesto for the Holyrood election.

10.30am: Wes Streeting, the health secretary, gives a speech on NHS funding to the IPPR thinktank.

11am: Nigel Farage, the Reform UK leader, and Zia Yusuf, the Reform chair, hold a press conference.

11.30am: Downing Street holds a lobby briefing.

Noon: The Southport inquiry publishes its phase one report.

2.30pm: Steve Reed, the housing secretary, takes questions in the Commons.

After 3.30pm: Starmer is expected to make a statement to MPs about the Iran war and his tour of the Gulf last week.

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