silverguide.site –

You’d be forgiven for thinking Jess Wilson had just won the Victorian election, judging by the Liberal party’s reaction to its byelection victory in Nepean on Saturday night.

At the Verve Bar at Rye Hotel, Wilson initially walked in ahead of the party’s candidate, Anthony Marsh, before pausing and doubling back so they could enter together to raucous applause.

Moments later, the deputy Liberal leader, David Southwick, introduced Wilson to the crowd as the “next premier of Victoria” and declaring the result proof that “the people of Nepean have said yes for Jess”.

Indeed, Wilson had been a constant presence throughout the campaign – on corflutes, flyers and on pre-poll, where she spent hours handing out how-to-vote cards most days during the two weeks of early voting.

It underscored how much the Liberal leader had riding on the contest, when just a couple of years ago, it would barely have made headlines.

The Mornington Peninsula electorate, which takes in some of the state’s wealthiest coastal suburbs, has been held by the Liberals for all but one term in the past 40 years. With Labor not contesting byelections in seats it doesn’t hold, the result should have been straightforward.

Take the 2023 Warrandyte byelection – without a Labor candidate, the Liberal party won 57% of first preference votes and a two-candidate-preferred vote of 71%.

But a combination of factors – including the surge of One Nation at the South Australian election, the circumstances behind Nepean MP Sam Groth’s resignation, the subsequent preselection of local mayor Anthony Marsh just weeks after he joined the party, and the rise of yet another local community independent – had many Liberals nervous.

As polls closed on Saturday, some Liberals were predicting a tight result. But that didn’t eventuate. By the end of the night, the Liberals had recorded 38.5% of the primary vote, down 9.6%, though Marsh would be comfortably elected on preferences.

One Nation’s Darren Hercus finished second on 24.7%, independent Tracee Hutchison polled 21.3%, with the Greens 9.3%, with the remaining candidates sharing 6.2%. On a Liberal-independent two-candidate-preferred count, Marsh secured 63.5%, representing a swing of 10.7% to the Liberals. Counting will continue on Monday, when the two-candidate-preferred count could change.

Liberal MPs have credited the win to several factors.

First, Wilson’s personal appeal, which is reflected in polling showing her more popular than the Labor premier, Jacinta Allan.

Colleagues described Wilson as a “rock star, “superstar” and “legend” who thrives on campaigning and speaking directly with voters. And notably, after years of internal division, MPs from across the party’s factions – including former opposition leader Brad Battin, who Wilson ousted in November – joined her regularly at pre-poll voting.

The campaign itself was tightly targeted, focusing on local issues such as upgrading Rosebud hospital, road conditions and crime. The party also ran a strong message against One Nation, with campaign materials arguing that a vote for the minor party was a “win for Jacinta Allan”.

In a social media video on the day early voting began, Wilson stressed the “only way” to get rid of a Labor government in November was to vote for the Liberal party. It’s clear this message resonated with some voters.

But RedBridge pollster and former Labor strategist Kos Samaras says the Liberals shouldn’t be “popping champagne corks” just yet.

“This is one of the wealthiest, oldest, asset-rich electorates in the country where 75% of the population live within 2km of the beach,” Samaras says.

“What they did was they secured a seat they already held, with a swing against their candidate on primary, in a state where their opponent has been in government for 12 years.”

To form government in November, the Coalition would need to win 16 seats, requiring a statewide swing of roughly 7-8%. By way of comparison, Jeff Kennett’s 1992 victory came with a 5.8% swing, while Ted Baillieu secured government in 2010 with a 6.0% swing – and neither faced such serious competition from One Nation.

Wilson acknowledged this in her speech on Saturday night, saying despite the win “the equation has not changed”.

“We still need to win 16 seats to change the government in November this year, and my commitment to Victorians, to everyone watching tonight, is that I will listen to you. I don’t take your vote for granted, I have to earn your vote,” Wilson said, adding that she would “take the lessons from tonight away and learn from them”.

One Nation didn’t win but its performance aligns with what polling has suggested for months, and it did particularly well in some of the electorate’s more economically stressed areas. In booths such as Rosebud and Tootgarook, One Nation outpolled the Liberals. In Rosebud West (formerly Capel Sound), Marsh received 118 votes to Hercus’s 117.

This should concern Labor, too. At the 2022 election, it won 32.6% of the vote in Nepean. The independent secured over 21% while the Greens’ vote rose only slightly – suggesting a significant share of former Labor voters either shifted to One Nation or voted Liberal to block it.

Benjamin Moffit, a senior lecturer in politics and international relations at Monash University and an expert on populism, estimates that between 10% and 15% of Labor voters defected to One Nation.

“What that shows us is the South Australian election is not a fluke,” Moffit says.

“These kinds of numbers shouldn’t be happening in this seat, in this state. The party has no ground game, no meaningful party organisation. If I was in One Nation HQ right now, I’d be rubbing my hands with glee.”

He said the party would be “competitive” in lower house seats and could “sweep at least a seat in every region” in the upper house.

Samaras agrees, saying both major parties are “going to have their hands full” fending off One Nation.

“Any seat that’s got a lot of blue-collar workers, a lot of people under financial stress – doesn’t matter who is holding them – they’re going to be on fire,” he says, pointing to outer-suburban electorates such as Bass, Cranbourne, Hastings, Pakenham and Werribee (held by Labor), as well as Berwick and Croydon (held by the Liberals), along with regional seats held by the Nationals.

But, he says, it will hurt the Liberals’ chances of majority government more than Labor.

“I just can’t see Jess Wilson become premier of Victoria without One Nation.”

The Liberals’ celebrations may be premature.

• Benita Kolovos is Guardian Australia’s Victorian state correspondent