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Even when the fixture list was revealed last summer, it was perhaps predictable that the middle of March would represent the crisis point for Newcastle. If they had reached the Champions League quarter-finals and won the Tyne-Wear derby at St James’ Park, a lot of other frustrations could have been forgotten. Even better, that game against Sunderland would have had to be postponed had Newcastle reached a third Carabao Cup final since 2023.

Those days of celebration a year ago feel a long time ago now, but the mood could easily have been very different. Newcastle were the better side in the home leg against Barcelona in the last 16 of the Champions League. Only the concession of a daft late penalty denied them victory and they were a persistent threat on the break in the first half of the away leg. Only in the second half of the second leg did the game get away from them: a 7-2 defeat made the difference between the sides seem much greater than it actually was.

The derby, similarly, might easily have been won. Newcastle led at half-time and had hit a post. But they have the fifth-worst second-half record of any Premier League side this season, raising questions about their fitness. Sunderland came back, Brian Brobbey’s winner resulting from a straightforward pass from Granit Xhaka. There are not many similarities between Hansi Flick’s Barça and Régis Le Bris’s Sunderland but both capitalised on surprising space in the Newcastle midfield late in the game.

And so a season that had teetered on the brink toppled into frustration. There is serious talk Eddie Howe could be under pressure. Certainly the chief executive, David Hopkinson, did not offer any great endorsement of Howe this week. With the opportunity to back him, Hopkinson said only that “we’ll talk about the future when it’s time”, which sounded distinctly ominous.

Howe arrived in November 2021, a month after the Saudi-led buyout of Mike Ashley’s ownership. He has earnestly and politely led the club into the Public Investment Fund era, largely evading inconvenient talk about human rights. He has twice led Newcastle into the Champions League. Most gloriously of all, he led them to the Carabao Cup, their first domestic trophy in 70 years. Nobody was suggesting he should be sacked at this point last season.

However, the question is less about on-pitch performance than structures at the club. Most of what has gone wrong this season can be put down to poor recruitment, and Howe had a significant hand in that. In the absence of a sporting director, Howe’s nephew, Andy Howe, worked with Steve Nickson on first-team recruitment last summer.

The Alexander Isak sale was handled remarkably badly. The saga was allowed to dominate the summer and, when the forward left at the end of the window, it felt like a defeat. With the Swede so determined to leave, the better option, surely, would have been to drive the fee as high as possible and wave him off, with enough time to spend some of the proceeds on broader squad-strengthening. Perhaps it was never possible, but a more imaginative hierarchy could at least have tried arranging a deal to let Liverpool have Isak in return for them giving Newcastle a clear run at Hugo Ekitiké.

Newcastle were unfortunate Yoane Wissa was injured soon after joining, but they signed Nick Woltemade without really seeming to have a clear idea of what they were going to do with a player with an unorthodox range of attributes. Anthony Elanga and Jacob Ramsey have had a limited impact, meaning that, at this stage, only Malick Thiaw of the summer signings can be hailed as a success.

As a consequence, the squad has lacked the requisite depth for the extra demands of the Champions League, plus a run to the semi-finals of the Carabao Cup and the fifth round of the FA Cup. If Newcastle have looked tired, as they have frequently in second halves, it is hardly surprising.

The question then is why and that comes down to broader structures. There wasn’t much Newcastle could do about Dan Ashworth’s departure for Manchester United. But Paul Mitchell, his successor as sporting director, became disillusioned and it was his departure that led to the vacuum of the summer. Mitchell was unimpressed with the club ownership, but had also reportedly clashed with Howe over player conditioning. Ross Wilson arrived as sporting director in October, with Howe’s approval, but he faces significant challenges even beyond suggestions that the decision-making process among the Newcastle ownership is not as slick as it should be.

Although the club insist the decision to sell the stadium to a subsidiary is merely a streamlining of bureaucracy, finances have come under sufficient strain that Newcastle are facing a Uefa fine for 2025. The sale of Isak and the return to the Champions League should ease the pressure, while the switch from profitability and sustainability regulations to an unanchored squad cost ratio should benefit owners with the deepest pockets, but it remains unclear just how committed the PIF is, given the general Saudi retrenchment. Talk of a new stadium has been notable by its absence for almost a year now. That declining interest itself may have protected Howe from scrutiny.

Hopkinson’s description of Newcastle not as a selling club or a buying club, but as a trading club, seems realistic, but there was also a sense he was preparing fans for a departure, with Sandro Tonali, Anthony Gordon and Tino Livramento those perhaps most likely to be on their way. Which is to say that even if economic conditions are softening, Newcastle may not be inclined to take advantage and the probable absence of Champions League football next season resets the parameters.

The underlying issue, though, is how Newcastle is run and the degree of influence Howe has accrued in the absence of a clearly defined hierarchy. In terms of on-field considerations, there is little reason to replace him and without the strain of European football form is likely to improve anyway. But if Newcastle are serious about changing the culture at the club, at becoming a serious modern organisation, it may be that Howe’s departure is a necessary part of their restructuring.