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There are small but significant moments in every league campaign. Until the weekend it was widely assumed that Northampton and Bath, the two frontrunners in the English Prem, were all but nailed on for home semi-finals and, by extension, would almost certainly meet in the grand final at Allianz Stadium in Twickenham on 20 June.

That could still happen but, suddenly, others are entering the chat. Not only did Saints and Bath lose at the weekend but both were well beaten, 41-17 by Leicester and 35-12 by Exeter respectively. Bath, including their Champions Cup semi-final in Bordeaux, have lost three games on the trot. Northampton were not so much batted aside by the Tigers as unceremoniously flattened.

A deeper dive into the historical stats also unearths some interesting nuggets. The last time Bath lost two consecutive league games under Johann van Graan was in October 2023, when a clutch of players were at the World Cup in France. Northampton, meanwhile, have never conceded as many points away against their East Midlands rivals’ as they did on Saturday. The burning question is whether all this is just a blip, or an indicator of something deeper?

In that regard Northampton fans will hope their director of rugby, Phil Dowson, was correct after the game. “We’ve got to be careful of over-egging it because it’s only the second game we’ve lost this season,” he said. “While we’ve got to make sure we don’t take it lightly, we also have to ensure we don’t throw the baby out with the bath water.” Give or take the mixed metaphors it is a fair point: Saints will cement a playoff place if they beat Bristol Bears at Franklin’s Gardens on Friday and have eminently winnable fixtures against Gloucester and Harlequins in the remaining two rounds.

Bath, on the face of it, also remain in a decent position. Bottom-placed Newcastle will head to the Rec this weekend and, should Bristol lose in the East Midlands, victory over the stumbling Red Bulls should deliver a top-four finish. “Never too high, never too low,” as Van Graan keeps reminding all and sundry on a weekly basis.

That said, those weekend results have slightly tweaked the psychology around the run-in. Northampton may have the league’s slickest attack but injuries have been nibbling away at their squad depth and the defence has been increasingly porous. Saints have shipped an average of more than 35 points in their past three league games?

Leicester, furthermore, will not be the slightest bit apprehensive if they end up facing their old rivals again, having just put six tries past a Saints side containing a fair sprinkling of England players. As with Michael Cheika last season, Geoff Parling has done a fine job from virtually a standing start and the Tigers seem to be gathering momentum at the right time.

It might even be enough to steal a home semi-final draw, depending on how the last three rounds pan out. If they can beat Sale away and Exeter at home, their final fixture is against – drum roll – Bath at the Rec. By that stage Bath would ideally be looking to rest key men at the end of a long season, but that luxury might not necessarily be available.

Which would be interesting even if there wasn’t already a faint suspicion that Bath are running through end-of-year treacle. In Exeter on Sunday, Van Graan referenced the long run of games his squad have slogged through as they battled away on two fronts. The defending champions will benefit from a week’s rest next week but, even so, the defeat by Exeter will be studied with interest by their rivals.

Because, à la Sherlock Holmes and the Hound of the Baskervilles, it was what didn’t happen in the second half that was perhaps the most significant aspect. With a strong wind at their backs, their famed Bomb Squad rumbling on for the last half hour and trailing by only six points entering the final quarter, everything was set up for the visitors to pull the trigger. Instead the Chiefs, playing into the elements, won the last 20 minutes by a margin of 17-0.

The simplest – and most plausible – explanation is that Bath were still mentally and physically jiggered after their semi-final loss in France. That certainly looked the case. But Exeter had also just lost a Challenge Cup semi-final – albeit a couple of days earlier – and did not have their star man, Manny Feyi-Waboso, on the field either.

There was also a marked contrast in the two sides’ attacking games. There is nothing wrong with Bath’s scrum or maul but they were a shadow of themselves with the ball. Henry Arundell and Joe Cokanasiga barely received a pass out wide and even Finn Russell, such an outstanding fly-half, could inject little in the way of fizz. Russell was also starting his 24th competitive match of the season; he gets paid big bucks but he is increasingly having to earn them.

It still feels likeliest, when you crunch the numbers, that Saints, Bath, Leicester and Exeter will occupy the playoff berths unless either Bears or Saracens, finishing as strong as anyone, can hurl themselves at the tape. But what happens then? A weary, slightly depleted Northampton against a determined Exeter with Leicester hosting Bath – rather than vice versa – in the other semi-final? There may yet be a twist in this season’s Prem tale.

Numbers game in URC

It is also a significant week in the United Rugby Championship, with the identity of the top eight and the quarter-final lineup set to be finalised after this weekend. Ulster, Cardiff and Munster all have home games and will be hoping to seal their playoff participation but a victory for ninth-placed Connacht away at Edinburgh could make things extremely tight. Likewise at the top where Glasgow Warriors, DHL Stormers and Leinster can all still finish first depending on the outcome of their games against Ulster, Cardiff and Ospreys, respectively.

Memory lane

11 May 2019 | Saracens beat Leinster 20–10 at St James’ Park to win their third Champions Cup in four years, the pinnacle achievement of their dominant era. It was a brutal, physical encounter in which Sean Maitland and Billy Vunipola scored to overturn an early Leinster lead. The club’s salary cap scandal broke later that year.

And finally …

Leigh Halfpenny’s decision to retire at the end of the season makes him the third Welsh star to do so in recent weeks, following in the studmarks of Liam Williams and George North. Wales were lucky to have them all but, in some respects Halfpenny was the most remarkable. Released from Ospreys’ academy because he was considered too small, he went on to win 101 caps for Wales and four for the British & Irish Lions, for whom he was named man of the series against Australia in 2013. Your correspondent has never seen anyone, Jonny Wilkinson included, kick goals more sweetly than Halfpenny did on that tour and his defensive positioning and bravery also set him apart. “It’s never going to be easy to say goodbye but I’m finishing with an immense sense of pride and gratitude,” said the 37-year-old last week. All his many fans, in Wales and beyond, wish him well.

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