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The Socceroos are on the brink of a landmark achievement, a place in the World Cup knockout rounds for only the third time.

“It’s a wonderful challenge, it’s what we’re here for,” said coach Tony Popovic on the eve of the match in Santa Clara, on the south-eastern edge of the San Francisco Bay Area. “We know it’s in our hands, and we know what a win does for us tomorrow.”

In fact, a draw will be enough for the Socceroos to secure a favourable last-32 clash with Belgium, Iran, Egypt or even New Zealand in Dallas with seven days’ rest. A win would see them sailing into that fixture, their confidence restored after the shock of that sluggish first half performance against the USA.

“Overall, we’ve had three very good halves of football. We had one bad half of football and we got punished for that,” Popovic said. “That’s the World Cup, and that’s the detail of the World Cup.”

The detail in this, the biggest World Cup ever, is easy to get bogged down in. A defeat for the Socceroos would mean they still likely qualify for the knockout rounds, as one of the best third-placed teams – as long as any loss is not a thrashing. But a highly fancied team that finishes in top spot in Group E (already confirmed as Germany), Group I (currently France) or Group K (currently Colombia) would then be standing in the way.

The results on Thursday helped add pieces to the qualification puzzle. Scotland’s 3-0 defeat to Brazil meant they finished third in Group C, with three points and a goal difference of -3. Australia would have to lose by four goals to drop below the Scots, and with draws dominating other groups some third-place teams will struggle to even reach three points. After the first three groups were finalised on Thursday, Australia were projected to qualify in more than 93% of simulations run by data agency Opta.

Permutations, however, are not something the Socceroos are considering. “Look, we haven’t thought about the game in that way at all,” Popovic said. “We’re going into the game tomorrow to win. I expect they’ll be doing the same.”

Paraguay coach Gustavo Alfaro described the match as a “final” for his team. “Of course we understand we are the team ranked lower by Fifa, but that doesn’t mean I feel inferior to them,” he said.

The 63-year-old held court for more than 40 minutes in the traditional pre-match press conference. To a room full of Paraguayan media – outnumbering the Australians by at least two-to-one – he spoke of the different challenge posed by Australia compared to the other group opponents Turkey and the USA, and highlighted the Socceroos’ strengths with their height and defensive organisation.

“There will be little spaces in the match, it will be complex to find the space to move up where you have a high density of players in certain parts,” Alfaro said. “You need patience and more patience.”

Popovic was less generous with his time, vacating the press room after about 20 minutes. He did confirm the absence of right full-back Jacob Italiano, who picked up an adductor injury in training this week, but he would not even entertain a question of who might replace him.

Assistant coach Paul Okon spoke the previous day about how Jordy Bos, Australia’s dangerous left-wingback, had been forced to exert more energy in the first half against the USA due to the American raids down that flank. Together with the enforced change on the right due to Italiano’s injury, it builds anticipation around whether the Australians can claim supremacy in the wide areas.

The Socceroos coach, however, talked down any narrative about the importance of the wingbacks in his system, let alone the match. “They play an important part, like so many relationships that we are trying to build on the field,” he said. “I wouldn’t put them above any other position.”

In central defence, both Harry Souttar and Alessandro Circati – like Bos – have accrued one yellow card, leaving them vulnerable to suspension from the last 32 match if they receive another against Paraguay. “You need to play keeping yourself a bit aware of that, but you can’t let that affect your match,” Circati said. “Because I think – at least myself – I’d rather go past the round and get a yellow card than not pass at all.”

No aspect of Popovic’s lineup will face greater scrutiny than his forwards, after he shifted Nestory Irankunda and Connor Metcalfe – both scorers against Turkey – to the bench for the start of the match against the USA. There are also lingering doubts over how long striker Mo Toure can contribute. The 22-year-old has a history of soft tissue injuries, has not played 90 minutes since November, and appeared troubled by cramp in the first match against Turkey.

Popovic sought to extinguish any innuendo about the reasons behind his selections, saying he would not change the lineup he selected against the USA. “I’d only change the performance in the first half, that we could match them a bit better, but I’m sure from that experience we’ll be better against Paraguay and, God willing, we get through and we’ll be better again for the next experience. Nestory plays a big part in that of course.”

The former Socceroos defender is calm and genuine, if restrained, with the media – one to keep his cards close to his chest. But he warmed up when the subject of his farewell appearance for the national team was raised. In 2006, Popovic scored against Paraguay to mark the end of his international career.

“When I saw that we’ve got Paraguay [in the World Cup draw] it was personally something a little special. Well, I also scored in my last game. I don’t score many, so I have to remind you of that,” he said, smiling at last.

“Then to think that all these years later that I’d be the head coach and [we would be] up against Paraguay is quite special. That was a great day, hopefully tomorrow will be a wonderful, wonderful day for Australia against Paraguay once more.”