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Even before Stephen Spielberg’s latest film, Disclosure Day, began unspooling at local multiplexes, the internet was debating whether we would ever experience a real-life disclosure day – when the US government admits that it’s aware of aliens here on Earth, a secret it has supposedly kept since the 1940s.
That would be dramatic news. But don’t hold your breath.
For decades, surveys have shown that a majority of Americans believe that extraterrestrials inhabit the cosmos. That’s a view shared by many scientists (including me). The reasoning is straightforward: either aliens exist, or there’s something extraordinarily remarkable about the existence of life on our planet – an argument that sounds like special pleading.
Many among the citizenry also suspect that the federal government is hiding the fact that aliens are present here on Earth. The authorities supposedly keep this under wraps to forestall widespread panic.
Does this make sense? Could the extraterrestrials really be here, sequestered in Nevada’s notorious Area 51 or some other clandestine locale?
Well, of course it’s possible. You can’t rule out this cinematic premise with an appeal to science. After all, it doesn’t violate physics to rocket from one star system to another, even if only to conduct breeding experiments on the locals. However, science does tell you that it’s improbable. Interstellar travel is enormously difficult and immensely costly (in terms of energy), given the need to travel quickly enough to forestall the crew dying of old age en route. In addition, you’ll be relieved to know that cross-breeding between humans and aliens is not going to happen, given the inevitable biological incompatibilities.
Still, while high-speed, interstellar roaming is far beyond our own capabilities, it’s conceivable that very advanced societies could hurtle themselves or their robot proxies across the inky voids of the galaxy to visit or explore.
That said, most scientists don’t see any good evidence that extraterrestrials have come to Earth. Besides, if the aliens really are here, what would motivate any government to keep that fact hidden? After all, it would be the story of the century. Scientists would be enormously interested, as would the public.
When I ask about the motivation for this apparent secrecy, I most commonly hear that it’s imperative to keep the news on the down-low to avoid panicking the citizenry. People who buy into this scenario frequently point to the disquiet of radio listeners who tuned into a 1938 dramatized version of HG Wells War of the Worlds, starring Orson Welles. The Martians hadn’t really invaded Earth, of course, but some people found the radio play both convincing and deeply unsettling. Some even alerted local police to the supposed invasion.
Despite the reaction to the narratives spun by Welles and Spielberg, panic over possible alien presence seems unlikely. After all, a large fraction of the public already believes the extraterrestrials really are here, doing whatever visiting aliens find interesting to do. But that hasn’t precipitated a lot of rioting in the streets. And even if you believe the extraterrestrials have landed, you’ve got to be comforted by the fact that they don’t seem to hurt anyone.
In short, there’s not going to be a disclosure day because there’s nothing to disclose. Yet. Real contact with aliens – most likely by eavesdropping on their radio transmissions – is something we might eventually achieve. Straightforward probability suggests that any society we hear from will be far more advanced than Homo sapiens. If not, they won’t have the technology to broadcast a strong signal our way. They presumably know things that would be of great use to us. Sure, some aliens might be malevolent. But the tremendous distances between star systems insulate us from any bad actors.
The possibility of establishing contact with other galactic beings has motivated a long-running research experiment called Seti (the Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence). Seti is hunting for evidence of cosmic company light-years away, and does so by scanning the sky for a radio signal coming to us from some other star system. This quest, pursued today with automated telescopes, goes on all day, every day.
Seti still hasn’t picked up such a signal. But thanks to the increasing capabilities of radio telescopes and their associated electronics, the search is steadily improving, scouting ever larger swaths of the cosmos. Finding an alien transmission could occur at any time.
So if that happens, what’s next? How would a real disclosure day play out?
A subcommittee of the International Astronautical Federation has already pondered this scenario, and has written a protocol for guidance. The protocol is both short and simple, and begins by stating that any promising signal that’s picked up should first be confirmed using someone else’s telescope. This is necessary to convince scientists that what they’ve found is really coming from a transmitter beyond our solar system, and isn’t merely terrestrial interference.
Incidentally, the protocol doesn’t require that any of this should be kept secret. To the contrary, the more scientists involved in verifying and studying the signal, the better. Eventually, it might be possible to decode whatever information the signal contains, and give us knowledge that is far beyond what humans now have.
While Disclosure Day offers a provocative scenario, its premise is faulty. There will be no disclosure because there’s no secrecy. After all, no one will win a Nobel prize by keeping such a momentous discovery under their hat.
The real disclosure day will be when scientists receive the ultimate long-distance call. And it will take place at a press conference.
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