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He “knows how to wind people up like Trump”, according to friends, and made his name in the UK with zany policy ideas including making the country sunnier using state-owned cloud busters.

Now the controversial strategist Steve Hilton, named the “pint-sized Rasputin” of Conservative politics, has become an unlikely frontrunner in the primary race for California governor.

His rhetorical flair remains familiar – credited with coming up with the “hug a hoodie” campaign for David Cameron’s government, Hilton is now claiming that a vote for him will make California “Califordable”.

Hilton gained prominence in the 2000s and 2010s for his role in modernising the Conservative party, going on to be Cameron’s director of strategy. He was also known in Westminster for his unorthodox working style. Hilton would reportedly pad the halls of Downing Street in socks, ordering civil servants to enact his latest hare-brained scheme, a quirk parodied in the BBC political satire The Thick Of It. He also, according to those who worked with him, pushed to scrap maternity leave.

Now he wants to be a politician proper, rather than an aide working behind the scenes. Some are sceptical of how this will work.

The former Liberal Democrat leader Vince Cable, who served in Cameron’s coalition government, was unenthusiastic at the prospect. “I think of him as ideologue rather than doer, gadfly not a serious politician,” he said. “His big idea, the ‘big society’, was a disappointment.” Cable believes Hilton can only get elected “by freak accident”.

“He would be terrible!” said one government adviser who worked in No 10 at the same time as Hilton. “He is someone who was very quickly insanely frustrated with how government works in reality. He comes in with these incredibly wild ideas, wants them all to happen instantly, isn’t interested in compromise, and when it doesn’t happen he throws his toys out the pram.”

A former cabinet minister who worked with Hilton said he was “puzzled” by his ambitions to become governor. “I remember there was literally no one who got more frustrated with the way government worked in the UK (and that was when things were working quite well under Cameron!),” they said. “The US state is usually considered even more dysfunctional than in the UK, so I wonder how he will get on.”

Some have expressed surprise that the man credited for making the Tories seem more liberal had gone on to become a “hardcore Maga” supporter who claims to have Trump “on speed-dial”.

But a good friend of his believes this misunderstands Hilton:. “He’s not gone from a cuddly Cameroon to a hard-Maga populist – it’s more nuanced. He is a disruptor and believes in shaking as much up as possible. That is what Cameroonism was.” Indeed, he still refers to himself as an environmentalist and says tackling the climate crisis is important. He has claimed that Democrats “steal” his ideas.

Would Hilton’s penchant for disruption land well in the US? “I don’t think the Californians would appreciate it,” one former colleague said. “He loses his temper very quickly. I feel he found the act of governing and the compromises required almost beneath him.”

Andy Coulson, the former communications chief who was later jailed over phone hacking, has noted Hilton’s apparent disdain for detail. Writing in the Telegraph on their time working together, he said: “I would ask: ‘So how does that work then?’ If I got an answer at all, it was along the lines of: ‘It’ll be fine – just you see.’ That was mildly irritating, as it was my team who would have to get out and sell the latest product from Steve’s dream factory.”

Other former friends and colleagues of Hilton view this as slightly unfair and think his unorthodox approach could bear more fruit in the US.

Giles Kenningham, former head of press at No 10, said: “I think in an age of huge volatility and disruption, where we are seeing industries being rendered obsolete overnight, AI upending things, we need someone who challenges the status quo, who is agile and who has the ability push things through. That’s Steve.”

A friend of Hilton’s concurred: “What makes him liked and successful, being ambitious and doing slightly ridiculous things, being a bit out there – being ‘extra’, as the kids call it – are exactly things that people have a go at you for over here.”

They added: “Steve gets on with Trump because he knows how to wind people up and make fun of himself. If you take everything he says seriously, then more fool you.”

While unseating the Democrats for the first time in two decades in one of their safest states – particularly for a quirky Briton who is friends with Trump – seems a long shot, Hilton’s friends warn against underestimating him.

Some polls are showing Hilton tied in the lead for the primary, which would have seemed implausible before.

“He moved out to California in 2012 and I went to visit him shortly after,” a friend of his said. “He told me then his ultimate ambition was to be governor, and I laughed at him. But now look! He’s doing well!”

His friend added that Hilton was often ahead of the zeitgeist: “He’s always been a Trump fan, he predicted Trump would win in 2016 and people laughed at him. His modernisation of the Tory party was controversial and mocked at the time, but it delivered a win.”

If he isn’t successful in the US, might Hilton return to “disrupt” politics here?

“No,” a good friend of his said, “he is in love with California, but more importantly he views the UK as a complete mess.”