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In recent months, European expressions of concern over the actions of Benjamin Netanyahu’s government have regularly hardened into outright condemnation. Last September, the European Commission president, Ursula von der Leyen, expressed horror and outrage at aid restrictions that she said created a “man-made famine” in Gaza. Brussels has inveighed against settler violence and land grabs in the West Bank, which undermine the possibility of a viable Palestinian state. Responding to the bombing of Lebanon following the US-Israeli ceasefire with Iran, the EU’s foreign policy chief, Kaja Kallas, said: “Israel’s right to self-defence does not justify this destruction.”
The angry words and exhortations have achieved nothing. Mr Netanyahu and his ministers have generally treated European critics with barely concealed contempt, presumably reassured by the fact that their chief allies in the White House tend to behave in exactly the same fashion. The EU is Israel’s biggest trading partner, and the academic benefits it confers through Israeli participation in the Horizon research programme are considerable. But internal disunity, and an overoptimistic faith in the power of persuasion, have led to a reluctance by the bloc to use those relationships as leverage.
Belatedly, there are indications that a change in approach may be coming. The recent election humiliation for Hungary’s outgoing prime minister, Viktor Orbán, was also a bad result for Mr Netanyahu, who lost an invaluable far-right ally. In February, Hungary was the only EU country to vote against the adoption of sanctions against violent settlers in the West Bank, blocking a measure requiring unanimity. Once Mr Orbán’s successor is in office, it is expected that the proposal will come back to the table.
More broadly, Spain is formally calling for the EU to suspend its association agreement with Israel, which gives preferential status to economic and commercial relations, on the grounds of human rights violations. Such a measure would fail to win unanimous support from key countries including Germany. But a partial suspension affecting the trade parts of the agreement – previously advocated by Ms von der Leyen in September – would require only a weighted majority in favour.
That may also prove unachievable, as was the case last autumn. But as the extremism driving the Netanyahu government becomes ever more plain, there is little doubt that the mood is shifting. Last week, following angry exchanges between Tel Aviv and Rome over civilian deaths in Lebanon, Italy’s prime minister, Giorgia Meloni, announced that the renewal of a defence cooperation agreement with Israel would be suspended “in view of the current situation”. Ms Meloni, like Mr Orbán, could once be considered a close political ally.
As the geopolitical consequences of the spectacularly reckless and illegal US-Israel war on Iran destabilise their economies, European governments can no longer afford to sit on the sidelines and talk to Mr Netanyahu’s hand. That a third of Israel’s trade is done with the EU gives the latter significant cards to play. So too the cultural and academic ties forged on a premise of shared values. Yet Brussels has repeatedly seen its views brushed aside as, with the help of Donald Trump, Israel’s prime minister pursues a maximalist regional agenda that manifestly has no place for a two-state solution. If the wind is now changing in European corridors of power, it is not before time.
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