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The treasurer, Jim Chalmers, says inflation and unemployment are expected to rise because of Donald Trump’s war in Iran, warning ahead of next month’s federal budget that the economic fallout from the conflict could still become “severe”.

Playing down expectations of major revenue increases from soaring commodity prices, Chalmers said some forecasters had not adequately assessed the negative effects on Australia from slower growth and rising joblessness.

After talks with international counterparts in Washington DC last week, Chalmers conceded the closure of the strait of Hormuz was driving frustration and uncertainty.

“From an economic point of view, the end of the war can’t come soon enough,” he said as ministers gathered in Canberra for cabinet meetings on Monday.

“But even if and when the ceasefire sticks, even when the war ends, even when the strait is properly reopened, we don’t expect things to go back to normal straight away.

“The consequences of this war in the Middle East are already serious, and there is still a risk that they become severe.”

Chalmers confirmed planned cuts to the NDIS will be “easily the most important part of the savings package that we will present on budget night”.

Inflation is expected to rise to above 5% in Australia as global supply chains are buffeted by the war, including disruption to about 20% of global fuel supplies.

In mid-March, Treasury modelling suggested inflation could peak at the “mid to high fours”, but those figures were quickly described as too conservative. On Monday, Chalmers said even the past few days had been “a wild ride” for those trying to frame the 12 May budget.

“We do expect inflation to be higher, we do expect growth to be slower – and slower growth typically, not always, … means higher unemployment, so that’s what we’re dealing with,” he said.

“The key factors which will determine whether we get a bit more inflation or a lot more inflation, a bit less growth or a lot less growth, will be how long the war continues, how long it takes to reopen the strait … and how long it takes for the global economy to get back to something that looks a little bit more like normal.”

The government has joined international efforts to push for the reopening of the strait, and will attend another conference of more than 40 countries this week.

Labor will push ahead with tax reform, a productivity package and spending cuts. Along with the prime minister, Anthony Albanese, Chalmers has promised a focus on intergenerational fairness, including through changes to property investor tax breaks including negative gearing and the 50% capital gains tax discount.

The Sydney Morning Herald and The Age reported on Monday that Labor is leaning towards a return to the pre-1999 capital gains tax system, altered by the Howard government to increase investment.

Disability advocates and state governments are nervous about cuts to the NDIS.

The $52bn scheme grew by more than 10.3% last year, and is on track to cost $63bn by 2028-29. Labor wants to bring growth down to between 5% and 6% annually.

Chalmers will brief state and territory treasurers on the plans on Tuesday.

Billions in cost-of-living support are expected, including the $2.55bn temporary cut to the fuel excise, as well as other “economic resilience” plans to help business and consumers during fallout from the war.

The opposition leader, Angus Taylor, said Labor had lost control of inflation before the war started.

“We’d already seen inflation going up, we’d seen interest rate increases, now many more on the horizon. Australians’ standard of living is going backwards at a time when we need it to be going forwards.

He said Labor was launching “thought bubbles” on housing plans.

“The one thing that’s consistent in everything I’ve heard so far is they want to put extra taxes on housing.

“I want to see more housing in this country for young Australians.

“Labor keeps talking about things that are going to reduce supply.”