silverguide.site –

Donald Trump styles himself as a peerless tough guy who never backs down. But he doesn’t always make good on his threats. Consider his demand that Denmark hand over Greenland, or his threats to hike tariffs on trade partners. He has even found ways to extend his deadlines for Tehran to reopen the strait of Hormuz, claiming, without evidence, that Iran was “begging” for a deal.

On Monday, Trump outdid himself. He gave Tehran until Tuesday at 8pm ET to reopen the strait – or “a whole civilization will die tonight”. The president’s public threat to commit genocide sent shockwaves through the United States. Some Democratic leaders concluded that “Trump has lost his mind”. More than 70 Democratic members of Congress called for his removal from office. Some politicians and media personalities sympathetic to Maga did the same or roundly rebuked him. Some commentators reminded soldiers that they were required to disobey flagrantly illegal orders. Never in American presidential politics has a spectacle matched this one.

Iranians, even opponents of the government, were shocked. Thousands defiantly formed human chains around bridges and power stations Trump might strike. One military commander called Trump “delusional”, adding that Iran would strike back even harder. The country’s senior leadership announced the end of all direct diplomatic communications with the United States. Tehran’s public stance was that it would never bend the knee.

That left Trump two choices, both of them bad.

One was to raze Iran. But that would have made the political firestorm at home worse – even some Republican legislators might have demanded his ouster – and triggered an avalanche of international denunciations, including from allies. Iran’s attacks on Persian Gulf oil and gas infrastructure would have caused the price of energy and various other commodities (fertilizers, aluminum, helium and petrochemicals) to surge further, possibly laying the groundwork for a global recession. Plus, Trump’s poll numbers have already tanked, and the midterm elections are set for November. If the Democrats win, he could lose control over legislation and supreme court confirmations, and investigations into the Epstein affair and corruption allegations against officials would intensify.

Trump could have ordered the US navy to open the strait – which he has sometimes declared unimportant to an oil-rich United States – but keeping it open would have been far more difficult. That would have required a permanent military presence that went beyond warships alone. And the mission would have been hazardous and open-ended. Iran overlooks the strait. It has many mines, short-range missiles, and Ghadir- and Nahang-class mini submarines. Tehran would not have to fight US warships. It could instead choose to strike a tanker every now and then, causing red lights to flash, and limit traffic to ships from countries willing to pay the transit fee. For other vessels, sailing through the strait would be perilous. Moreover, the largest supertankers cost north of $100m and insurers would balk.

The other option was to back away. That would have prompted renewed cries of “Taco” – Trump always chickens out. Trump would also have been diminished in the eyes of world leaders, especially China’s president Xi Jinping, whom he is scheduled to meet in Beijing this month.

The Taco taunts would subside, and diehard Maga devotees will forgive him for anything. But a GOP defeat in the midterms would have ended the overweening power he has wielded, thanks to a supine GOP-controlled Congress.

As the deadline neared, Trump faced a decision between escalation or capitulation. He chose the latter but has tried to dignify his retreat by claiming that he granted Pakistan’s request for a two-week ceasefire, providing Iran opens the strait.

Iran’s foreign minister tweeted that, thanks to Pakistan’s good offices, Trump had agreed to accept Tehran’s 10-point plan, presented on Monday, as “a general framework” for negotiations and that the US had requested talks based on Trump’s 15-point plan, which dates back to May last year. (It came to naught after the US and Israel attacked Iran the following month, and another version sent in late March was also rejected.)

Iran had steadfastly said no to a ceasefire. It insists on a permanent end to the war, reimbursement for war damages, a non-aggression pledge from Israel and the US, and an Israeli commitment to cease attacks on Tehran’s Lebanese ally, Hezbollah. It seeks the full lifting of primary and secondary economic sanctions and the right to levy a $2m per ship fee, split with Oman, to finance postwar reconstruction. It demands that US troops depart the Middle East.

Iran has now agreed to permit safe passage through the strait for two weeks but will likely keep collecting tolls. Major differences remain, however, between the US and Iranian plans, particularly on the extent of sanctions relief. Moreover, since the Geneva talks that Trump abandoned to launch the war, Iran has not offered any major concessions on nuclear enrichment – it insists on the right to enrichment for peaceful purposes – or agreed to slash its missile stocks, both key Israeli demands.

Perhaps there will be a real ceasefire that lasts a fortnight. But if there’s no firm deal, then what? Iran still controls the strait, remains defiant, and retains has the military muscle to spark a worldwide recession. Its demands remain unacceptable to Trump and vice versa.

If there’s a ceasefire but no comprehensive deal, he and Benjamin Netanyahu could resume their war. But to what end?

They can’t achieve “regime change” from the skies alone, and a ground war would be bloody and protracted. Though Iran cannot match US military power, it has 1 million active, reserve, and paramilitary troops, who would be fighting on home ground. Its territory, more than half of it mountainous, exceeds that of Spain, France and Germany combined. Many Iranians – even those who dislike their rulers – might be hostile toward American ground troops, given that the United States and Israel have targeted, among other structures, bridges, 30 universities, and the famed Pasteur Institute, founded more than 100 years ago.

A mega-deal remains the only path to averting a return to full-scale war. Under the 2015 Joint and Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), which Trump was quick to ditch, Iran made substantial and verifiable concessions on uranium and plutonium enrichment and went much further during the Geneva talks that Trump’s war scuttled. Despite the scaremongering, Tehran was neither hell-bent on building nuclear weapons nor on the verge of acquiring them when Israel and the US attacked on 28 February.

Getting Tehran to cut its ballistic missile stocks will be harder now – the US-Israeli attack has made them seem all the more essential – but full sanctions relief and a non-aggression commitment might still change the calculus. None of this, however, will be achievable unless Trump stops making maximalist demands and civilization-ending threats and also reins in Israel. Iran said on Wednesday that Israel must end its Lebanon war before the strait can be fully reopened. That same morning, airstrikes hit Iran’s Lavan Island refinery. (By whom remains unclear as of now.)

Now there is an uneasy pause. The chasm between the two sides remains vast. Absent compromises and adept diplomacy the conflict will almost certainly reignite.

• Rajan Menon is professor emeritus of international relations at Powell School, City University of New York, and senior research fellow at Columbia University’s Saltzman Institute of War and Peace Studies