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Thunderstorms and tornadoes caused damage and disruption last Thursday as severe weather hit the US north-east. A tornado struck Dover, Delaware, with another reported near Atlantic Beach on Long Island in New York.

The latter was rated EF-1 by the National Weather Service, with peak winds of 97mph (156kph). It was the first tornado reported in Nassau County since November 2021, with buildings and beach cabanas damaged, and heavy rainfall causing flash flooding and power cuts.

In the UK, after a summer of high temperatures and virtually no meaningful rainfall it has turned cooler over recent days, with the arrival of some heavy showers and thunderstorms. High pressure brought a mainly dry and settled weekend, but more unsettled weather will arrive from Tuesday. Showers, thunderstorms and longer spells of thundery rain are expected to spread northwards, with temperatures increasing as warmer southerly winds develop.

Meanwhile, a powerful El Niño is developing in the Pacific Ocean and could be the strongest in living memory, according to the UK Met Office. El Niño is a naturally occurring climate pattern that occurs every two to seven years. It can trigger major shifts in global weather, leading to drought, flooding and wildfires but no two events are the same and the impacts from one event to the other can be different. The effects are greatest in the tropics. India has already experienced weaker than average monsoon rainfall, while hurricane activity in the Atlantic has been suppressed.

Trade winds that usually move from east to west across the Pacific Ocean can weaken or even reverse, allowing warm water to push eastwards. Sea surface temperatures in the region are forecast to climb by more than 3C above average later this year, which would make it the strongest El Niño since records began in 1950. Some forecasts suggest it could reach an unprecedented 4C above average. Global temperatures rise due to the transfer of heat from the ocean to the atmosphere, and this year’s El Niño means that 2027 is likely to be the warmest year ever recorded globally.

For the UK, El Niño increases the risk of a wet and stormy autumn. It can also increase the risk of colder weather developing later in the winter across north-west Europe. There are already signs in some of the longer-range forecast models that this autumn and the early part of winter could be wetter than normal. In a warming world, the impacts of El Niño are likely to be more severe, but there is currently no strong evidence that climate change is making these events more likely.