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Good morning. Keir Starmer is on thin ice. The prime minister survived a bruising Tuesday in the Commons as MPs continued to scrutinise his account of the decision to appoint Peter Mandelson as US ambassador. Almost all Labour MPs backed Starmer in a key vote on whether he should face an inquiry into whether he misled parliament.
But in Westminster there is a growing feeling that the Labour leader is on borrowed time. Next week’s local and parliamentary elections, which Starmer will face as one of the most unpopular prime ministers since records began, is likely to see public dissatisfaction crystallise. “He’s in last chance saloon,” one minister said after last night’s vote.
For today’s newsletter I spoke with the Guardian’s policy editor, Kiran Stacey, about a critical few weeks for the prime minister and whether Labour MPs could move to replace him. First, the headlines.
Five big stories
US | King Charles has extolled the importance of Britain’s “special relationship” with the US in a speech to Congress that made pointed reference to the importance of Nato, the defence of Ukraine and the climate crisis.
Middle East | Britain is facing a £35bn economic hit and the risk of a recession this year as the fallout from the Iran war adds to the pressure on Keir Starmer’s government, the National Institute of Economic and Social Research (Niesr) has warned.
Oil | The UAE has quit the Opec oil cartel after 60 years of membership, in a heavy blow to the group and its de facto leader, Saudi Arabia, as global energy markets contend with the biggest supply crisis in history.
UK news | The chair of NatWest was forced to defend the bank against accusations of “climate backtracking” at a chaotic annual shareholder meeting, which was temporarily suspended owing to singing protesters.
Women’s rights | Fifa has given permission for Afghan Women United – a squad composed of refugees scattered around the world in Australia, the Middle East and Europe – to represent Afghanistan in official competitions without requiring the approval of the Taliban, which banned the team.
In depth: ‘Labour MPs can’t decide how to get rid of him’
Less than two years ago, Keir Starmer swept to a remarkable victory in the 2024 general election, winning an enormous majority on the promise of change and accountability. A return to calm, sensible government and drawing a line under 14 years of chaotic Tory rule was core to the Labour leader’s pitch to the country.
But chaos grips the UK political class once again – triggered by reporting by the Guardian that Peter Mandelson, a friend of convicted paedophile Jeffrey Epstein, failed security vetting during the appointment process as US ambassador – and it is unclear whether Starmer will get to celebrate his second anniversary as prime minister in July.
The Labour leader denies he had any knowledge of the failed vetting process, insisting he would never have appointed Mandelson had he known, and says that the correct hiring process was followed. But many MPs are not so sure. The leader of the opposition, Kemi Badenoch, and the Liberal Democrat leader, Ed Davey, each excoriated Starmer on Tuesday over his account of the decision to appoint the disgraced former US ambassador, accusing him of a “cover-up”.
It followed a morning of committee meetings in which Morgan McSweeney, the prime minister’s former chief of staff and a confidant of Mandelson, said that he was at fault for recommending him for the position. He described learning the true extent of Mandelson’s relationship with Jeffrey Epstein as like “having a knife through my soul”.
The loss of confidence in Starmer’s leadership has been a slow burn, says Kiran Stacey, who thinks that the local elections on Thursday of next week will be a more perilous moment for the prime minister than this week’s parliamentary scrutiny.
“Labour MPs are very depressed. They have mostly decided that they can’t go into the next election with him as their leader and would like somebody else to do the job by then. What they can’t decide is how they should get rid of him, when they should get rid of him, and who they should replace him with,” he says.
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A stubborn leader
Starmer is unlikely to go quietly despite his extreme unpopularity. Satisfaction with the prime minister is historically low, polling shows, with around half of the country thinking that he should resign. This is not as low as the end of, say, Boris Johnson’s leadership, but it is bleak. Even so, Starmer is likely to be unyielding to this criticism, says Kiran.
“People who know Starmer say that he’s extremely stubborn and can be impervious to outside criticism. It’s difficult to know how much he is affected by polls showing he is one of the least popular prime ministers in history,” he says. “It doesn’t seem to affect him in the way that you might think.”
The emotional impact of an electoral wipeout in the upcoming elections might change things, says Kiran. Historical losses are forecast in Scotland, Wales and London for Labour to the Greens, Reform and nationalist parties.
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Waiting for the next scandal
Losing the cabinet would be fatal for Starmer’s political fortunes, and Kiran says there are signs of growing disquiet among key figures in public statements.
“Ed Miliband last week did not really defend Starmer, and Yvette Cooper criticised the idea of giving [former Starmer aide] Matthew Doyle an ambassadorship in the Commons. We reported last week that there was cabinet disagreement over his decision to sack Olly Robbins,” he says. “So, if they do turn on him, that might end up being the moment that the PM realises that what people are saying about him is not going to change.”
But it might not happen quickly. For Boris Johnson, it was the Chris Pincher scandal – not Partygate – that brought his time as prime minister to an end. Kiran says that it is often something unexpected that topples a leader, and that it might just be the next scandal that calls time on Starmer.
“MPs and the cabinet may simply decide they cannot defend the prime minister any more. They won’t go on the morning media rounds – it’s just one of too many things,” he says.
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A replacement in the wings
Amid the growing scrutiny of Starmer, there is a growing consensus among Labour MPs about who should replace him, says Kiran. The former deputy prime minister Angela Rayner, the health secretary, Wes Streeting, and even Ed Miliband have been rumoured as potential replacements. However, even though he was blocked from standing at the Gorton and Denton byelection, the Manchester mayor, Andy Burnham, is increasingly seen as a figure that all sides of the party can unite around. This, too, may buy Starmer more time as MPs try to find a way to get Burnham back into parliament.
“The polls suggest Burnham is the one that would actually change Labour’s electoral fortunes. Having said that, he is also the least likely candidate in that he’s not an MP. He’s the most difficult to install,” says Kiran.
“In the short term, that could weirdly keep Starmer in place because the people who’ve decided to back Burnham have to wait for him to get back in.”
What else we’ve been reading
Jessica Murray tried the £450 Adidas trainers that powered Sabastian Sawe to the first ever sub-two-hour marathon. Her take? “Much more buoyant than any time I’ve run before” – and she knocked a minute off her PB to boot. Charlie Lindlar, newsletters team
I really enjoyed this read by Amelia Dhuga on how a hit Lebanese YouTube comedy show is confronting misogynistic attitudes. Patrick
Speaking of unpopular prime ministers, Zoe Williams asks an important question: when the public find our leaders more and more unbearable, what if it’s not them that’s the problem … but us? Charlie
Claudia Efemini writes about how zine creators are resisting the rise of AI use in their self-published booklets. Patrick
Some tips are easier and more permanent than others, but as a serial small treat buyer, I was inspired by Jane Hoskyn’s guide to cutting out impulse buying. Charlie
Sport
Football | Ousmane Dembélé and Khvicha Kvaratskhelia both scored twice for PSG before Bayern Munich hit back to reduce their losing deficit to 5-4 in a magnificent semi-final first leg.
Football | Brighton’s plan to establish Europe’s first purpose-built women’s stadium is the “kind of progress we have dreamed about for years”, the Brighton and former England forward Fran Kirby has said.
Athletics | Mary Cain made it to world championships at 17 and joined Nike’s Oregon Project. At 29, Cain is finally bringing to light the hellish years she spent under coach Alberto Salazar.
The front pages
The Guardian splashes with “Charles hails alliance of US and Britain in age of division”. “King and Trump forge a very special relationship” – the Times may be putting it a bit high? The Financial Times runs with “US special relationship is ‘probably Israel’, says envoy in leaked remarks”. The i paper’s interpretation is “King tells Congress: America and the UK must reconcile”.
In UK politics, “Starmer offers to bring back Rayner” says the Telegraph. In the Express, Kemi Badenoch says to Labour MPs “You are part of Mandelson cover-up” after they voted down an inquiry. Not all his MPs backed Starmer, the Mail delights in pointing out: “Labour revolt over Starmer’s sleaze cover-up”. The Mirror has “Blatant Profiteering”, going after BP over its Iran war windfall. An offbeat one in the Metro: “Face facts! Op can’t turn you into an AI pic!”. That is about patients’ plastic surgery demands.
Today in Focus
Siri, where does Apple go next?
Guardian US tech editor Blake Montgomery talks about the future of Apple after the resignation of its longtime CEO Tim Cook
Cartoon of the day | Ben Jennings
The Upside
A bit of good news to remind you that the world’s not all bad
The Teifi valley in Wales was once at the centre of the country’s wool-weaving and fishing industries. Now, with its fish stocks plummeting and mills shuttered, a grassroots initiative is hoping to give the valley a new purpose with an 83-mile hiking trail.
The Teifi valley trail launched on 25 April thanks to the collective efforts of local ramblers’ groups, “Walkers are welcome” communities and footpath associations, who reopened paths, secured permissions, put up signposts and created a guide.
“One of the main reasons for the trail is to get people with backpacks and boots down here to spend money,” says the Teifi valley trail association’s James Williams. “We’ve seen the economic effect the coastal paths have; we thought we could have a bit of that as well.”
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And finally, the Guardian’s puzzles are here to keep you entertained throughout the day. Until tomorrow.
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