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On Thursday, the Victorian government announced it was “Keeping Puppy Protection Laws Up To Date”.

Free puppies might be the only policy that would improve just released dire polling for the premier, Jacinta Allan, 21 weeks out from the state election on the last Saturday of November.

The RedBridge poll shows that the only area where the embattled Victorian premier scores impressively is in the unpopularity stakes.

Her opponent for premier into 2027 and beyond, the freshly minted Liberal leader Jess Wilson, has a different problem. She was unknown by nearly 20% of the 5,000 people in the pollsters’ sample.

Allan cannot front a press conference without being grilled about her puzzling lack of curiosity about credible accounts of serious corruption allegedly siphoning billions from government infrastructure projects. An opinion piece in the Age on Thursday offered an opportunity to change strategy, but she just said she was sorry about the waste and wanted to ensure it did not keep happening.

While there may be some truth in the premier’s cavil that barristers’ children’s orthodontists would be the principal beneficiaries if she calls a royal commission, the collateral just might be that bikies, thugs and standover merchants will need to look elsewhere to fund their bottomless appetite for ostentatious bling, luxury cars and cryptocurrencies.

The opposition leader’s struggle to establish her identity with a disengaged electorate is not made easier by Victorians having been introduced to five opposition leaders in as many years.

Distractions include the endless circus provided by the Liberal party backbencher Moira Deeming, who apparently couldn’t distinguish between a headlock and a pat on the shoulder.

Victoria police, not known for quick responses to anything except media criticism of their shortcomings, didn’t take long to dismiss Deeming’s recent claim to be the victim of assault by former leader Matthew Guy. Some Liberal power brokers decided to disendorse her. But on Friday, the state opposition told the court it would not take any steps while legal proceedings were under way, as Deeming is pursuing a supreme court injunction in her determination to stay a Liberal. Even her former cheerleaders in the Murdoch media must by now be feeling some buyers’ remorse.

In other news, Victoria was once the Greens’ happy place.

Richard Di Natale and Adam Bandt provided sustained federal leadership from Melbourne’s inner-north youthful stronghold. But recent polling says they are struggling. “Peak Green” anyone? Some of the post-Covid teenagers who will cast their first vote in 2026 were 14 when Daniel Andrews won in 2022, and 10 years old when he won in 2018. The Greens are part of the establishment to them.

Younger voters now look elsewhere. Watch the Victorian Socialists, supercharged by their recruitment at huge weekly pro-Palestine protests, challenge the Greens and the ALP in the inner city.

What happens if Socialists and Greens hold the balance of power in a hung parliament?

In the US, disillusioned voters swept socialist-lite Zohran Mamdani to power in New York City, and in Colorado, Ethiopian-born Melat Kiros, a 29-year-old democratic socialist, defeated 68-year-old Democrat power broker Diana DeGette, in office since 1997. Ignore this trend at your peril.

Will the One Nation party make inroads in the state historically most immune to Pauline Hanson’s charms?

Only when – or if – a local leader steps forward for One Nation can we assess their credibility.

On past performance, without exception, they have proven to be dysfunctional. One Nation’s internal contradictions and reliable capacity to preselect more than their share of nutters have been their achilles heel.

This time, well-documented investment in One Nation by Gina Rinehart matched to the real campaign experience of the former Nationals leader Barnaby Joyce may deliver a different outcome. Or may not.

In 2022, the then premier Daniel Andrews was returned with an increased parliamentary majority, despite the best efforts and confident predictions – or wishful thinking – of the Murdoch papers and commentariat, and self-important shock jocks on commercial radio.

Both Allan and Wilson have major policy initiatives still to come and need to define their vision for a state that – contrary to sentiment – is experiencing rapid economic and population growth.

If the polling is correct, a slight majority of Victorians have already made up their minds about how they will vote come November.

However, a significant “undecided” (or “soft”) vote leaves doubt about an outcome that may be very close.

Recent history offers one possible explanation.

When Steve Bracks faced off against an imperious Jeff Kennett in 1999, there was a high “undecided” even up to election eve. Nobody could be undecided about Kennett, a polarising figure. The undecideds were simply weighing up the alternative, the then relatively unknown Bracks.

Is 2026 shaping up to be the same?

• Jon Faine is a vice-chancellor’s fellow at the University of Melbourne and was the ABC Radio Melbourne Mornings presenter for more than 20 years